The Met Office outlook for 2025 suggests that it is likely to be one of the three warmest years for global average temperature, falling in line just behind 2024 and 2023. 2024 is expected to be the warmest year on record, now almost certain to exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for the first time. This follows on from the record-breaking 1.45°C in 2023, the previous warmest year on record.
The major contribution to the warming is the increasing concentration of greenhouse gases. However, global temperatures for 2024 and 2023 have been elevated slightly by a process of natural climate variation known as El Niño, where warmth from the tropical Pacific warms the global atmosphere. Sea-surface temperatures have also been warmer than average across much of the world’s oceans.
Professor Adam Scaife leads the team behind the Met Office’s global forecast for 2025. He said: “Interestingly, the warm 2025 predicted global temperatures occur despite the tropical Pacific moving towards a La Niña phase which is driving slightly cooler conditions.
The average global temperature for 2025 is forecast to be between 1.29°C and 1.53°C (with a central estimate of 1.41°C) above the average for the pre-industrial period (1850-1900). This would make 2024 the twelfth year in succession that temperatures will have reached at least 1.0°C above pre-industrial levels.
Met office says 2025 Outlook: in top three warmest years on record - 12.12.24
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