Millions of people with type 2 diabetes could get better treatment thanks to a new, simple low-cost tool that predicts the most effective drug for an individual.

Millions of people with type 2 diabetes could get better treatment thanks to a new, simple low-cost tool that predicts the most effective drug for an individual.
The project was funded by the Medical Research Council (MRC) as part of its precision medicine initiative to ensure that the right drug is given to the right patient, at the right time.
The study, published in the Lancet, has developed an innovative way of identifying the most effective glucose-lowering drugs for a person with type 2 diabetes. By predicting which drug will lead to the largest reduction in blood glucose levels, the easy-to-use tool could pave the way for better health for millions, at the push of a button.
Careful management of blood glucose levels is essential for reducing the risk of serious diabetes complications. However, keeping blood glucose levels in a safe range can be challenging, with only about a third of people with type 2 diabetes meeting targets.
Urgent need for new approaches
With diabetes-related complications devastating lives and costing the UK healthcare system £6.2 billion every year, there is an urgent need for new approaches to improve blood glucose management.
In England alone, more than three million people with type 2 diabetes use glucose-lowering drugs to manage their condition. While metformin is the most common first treatment, five other major types of glucose-lowering drugs are available.
However, their effectiveness varies widely from person to person and it has not been possible to determine the best glucose-lowering treatment for each patient until now.
The new tool was created to tackle the challenge of which drug to choose after metformin. It was developed and tested using data from one million people with type 2 diabetes in the UK, linking GP and hospital records, with its accuracy verified with data from clinical trials.
The research revealed that only 18% of people with type 2 diabetes in the UK have been treated with the most effective glucose-lowering drug for them.
Reduction in blood glucose levels
Modelling showed that starting people on the drug recommended by the new tool could lead to marked reductions in blood glucose levels at one year, of around five millimole or mole on average.
Importantly, these improvements in blood glucose levels could approximately double the time until people need to start taking further diabetes medications. The tool’s use was also predicted to lower risks of developing serious long-term diabetes complications including heart attacks, strokes and kidney disease.
Using routinely collected clinical information, the tool offers a low-cost, practical, immediately usable solution that could transform the treatment of type 2 diabetes.
For millions of people with type 2 diabetes, its use would ensure they receive the best treatment to help keep their blood sugars in target range and minimise their risk of developing life-limiting complications.
Type 2 diabetes treatment transformed by new precision medicine - last updated 26.02.25
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